This week: UK100 set to extend losses?

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and top economic data could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

The UK100 is in focus after the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt sent prices tumbling toward the psychological 10,000 level.

The Bank of England stated it “was ready to act” against a surge in inflation triggered by conflict in the Middle East.

A stronger pound and expectations around higher UK interest rates could mean fresh pain for the UK100 given how over 80% of revenues from the FTSE100 companies come from outside of the UK.

Monday, 23rd March

• EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
• SG20: Singapore CPI
• US400: US construction spending, Chicago Fed activity index

Tuesday, 24th March

• EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P PMI’s
• JPY: Japan CPI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• TWN: Taiwan industrial production
• UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• USDInd: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday, 25th March

• AUD: Australia CPI
• EUR: Germany IFO business climate
• UK100: UK February CPI

Thursday, 26th March

• SG20: Singapore industrial production
• ZAR: South Africa rate decision, PPI
• SP35: Spain GDP
• TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
• USDInd: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 27th March

• CNY: China industrial profits
• MXN: Mexico trade, unemployment
• SP35: Spain CPI
• UK100: UK retail sales, Gfk consumer confidence
• US500: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

·      Tuesday, March 24: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Back in February, the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 51.7 from a preliminary 52. Nevertheless, it remains in expansion and near a 17-month high of 51.8 in January thanks to input cost inflation. A strong PMI report may further fuel inflation fears, reinforcing bets around the BoE hiking rates in 2026.

·      Wednesday, March 25: UK February CPI report

UK CPI is expected to rise 3.1% in February compared to 3.0% in the previous month. Given how this remains above the BoE’s inflation target of 2%, a figure that meets or exceeds expectations may fuel speculation around higher UK rates – especially with growing fears over conflict-induced price pressures. A stronger pound may weigh on the UK100. The same can be said vice versa.

·      Friday, March 27: UK retail sales report  

Consumption remains an engine for growth in the UK economy with retail sales offering key insight into consumer spending habits in the face of still sticky inflation. Traders are currently pricing in a 90% chance of three BoE rate hikes in 2026. If this incoming report influences these bets, it could rock the UK100.