This Week: EURUSD in focus as German economy takes center stage

• Germany data to drive euro vs dollar
• Ifo business confidence kicks off week
• Nvidia earnings expected to swing stock
• German inflation key for ECB rate bets
• US PPI, jobless claims also due

The euro finds itself in the spotlight this week, with a trio of critical reports on the German economy set to be released.

As the Eurozone's largest economy, Germany's health is a major driver for the single currency.

The data will provide a timely snapshot of consumer and business sentiment, culminating in the latest inflation figures. These reports will help shape expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) next policy moves, influencing the euro's strength against the U.S. dollar.

Adding to the global market focus, all eyes will also be on NVIDIA, which is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings.

Events Watchlist:

• Monday, Feb. 23: Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb)

A key survey measuring German business optimism. A higher-than-expected reading could signal economic strength and support the euro, while a disappointing figure may weigh on the single currency.

• Wednesday, Feb. 25: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Index (Mar)

Gauges German consumer morale ahead. Rising confidence suggests stronger spending potential, which could boost the euro. A drop in sentiment may signal economic caution and pressure the currency.

• Wednesday, Feb. 25: NVIDIA Corp Q4 Earnings Release

The AI chip giant is set to report results. With an implied 1-day move of 4.99% priced into options, traders are bracing for a major swing in the stock price, making it a key event for broader market.

• Friday, Feb. 27: Germany Inflation Rate – Preliminary (Feb)

A crucial flash estimate of consumer price growth. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the case for the ECB to keep policy tight, potentially boosting the euro. A lower reading might fuel rate cut expectations, weakening the currency.

Other major events this week:

Monday, Feb 23

• EUR: Germany Ifo Business Climate (Feb)
• USD: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan, Dec); US Factory Orders (Dec); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

Tuesday, Feb 24

• EUR: Eurozone New Car Registrations (Jan); France Business Confidence (Feb)
• GBP: UK CBI Distributive Trades (Feb)
• USD: US ADP Employment Change Weekly; Fed Golsbee Speech
• Crude (WTI, Brent): US API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Feb 20)
• CNY: China Foreign Direct Investment (Jan)

Wednesday, Feb 25

• AUD: Australia Inflation Rate (Jan)
• EUR: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar); France Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• Crude (WTI, Brent): US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Feb 20)
• Major Earnings: Nvidia (after markets close)

Thursday, Feb 26

• JPY: BoJ Takada Speech; Japan Industrial Production (Jan); Retail Sales (Jan)
• EUR: Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Feb); Spain Business Confidence (Feb)
• USD: Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Feb 21)

Friday, Feb 27

• GBP: UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Feb)
• CHF: Swiss Retail Sales (Jan); GDP Growth Rate (Q4); KOF Leading Indicators (Feb)
• EUR: Germany Inflation Rate (Feb); France Inflation Rate (Feb); Germany Unemployment Data (Feb); Spain Inflation Rate (Feb)
• CAD: Canada GDP Growth Rate (Q4)
• USD: US PPI (Jan)