XAUUSD climbs on rate-cut odds

• Gold has moved above ~$4,000/oz amid mixed signals
• Labour-market soft patch boosts rate-cut odds
• Dollar weakness underpins gold’s overseas appeal
• Government-shutdown uncertainty lifts safe-haven demand

Gold market is navigating a powerful interplay of forces. Driven by newly weak U.S. labour data, including a sharp rise in job-cut announcements. Expectations are mounting for a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve with Markets now placing about a 67% chance of a December cut, up from around 62% recently.

In response, bullion moved above $4,000 per ounce level as the U.S. dollar softened, making gold more attractive to overseas purchasers.

At the same time, uncertainty tied to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and soft data boosted gold’s safe-haven status.

Despite the headline move higher, gold’s weekly performance is muted, reflecting investor caution amid conflicting signals. On one hand, softer job data supports lower rates (which tends to boost non-yielding gold); on the other, the labour market remains opaque and some Fed officials warn against assuming further cuts.

In this environment, gold may be behaving less like a speculative momentum play and more like a hedging instrument, appealing when macro risk and monetary-policy ambiguity are elevated. The near-term upside may hinge not only on when the Fed acts, but also on how the dollar behaves and whether the shutdown continuous.

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